THE WATCHERS
WATCHING THE WORLD EVOLVE AND TRANSFORM
Posted by Chillymanjaro on May 15, 2013
Tropical Cyclone Mahasen (01B) is now centered several hundred miles south of Kolkata, India, and will impact areas from northeastern India to Bangladesh and Myanmar over the next few days. The system is about to enter into an area of warm sea surface temperatures and lower wind shear which will intensified the cyclone and give it opportunity to become even better organized. Landfall is expected to occur on May 16, 2013 with most forecast models putting the path between Chittagong (Bangladesh) and Maungdaw (Myanmar).
On May 13, 2013 the Suomi NPP satellite caught an interesting glimpse of the storm as it moved off the eastern coast of India. The VIIRS Day-Night Band was able to resolve lightning flashes towards the center of the storm, along with mesopheric gravity waves emanating outwards like ripples in a pond. These gravity waves are of particular interest to air traffic controllers so assist in identifying areas of turbulence. (Credit: NOAA/NASA/VIIRS)
TC Mahasen will bring life-threatening conditions to millions of people from northeastern India and into Bangladesh and Myanmar. Due the low elevations of this region (mostly shallower than 200 meters), flooding, mudslides and storm surge present the greatest threats. These areas have been hit by some of the deadliest cyclones across the globe.
According to GDACS, up to 22.3 million people people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above. In addition, 4.1 million people people are living in coastal areas below 5m and can therefore be affected by storm surge.
The highest impact, surge and rainfall predictions are for the Chittagong and Cox’s Bazaar areas of Bangladesh but there are serious concerns for Rakhine State where there are more than 140,000 IDPs. (Credit: OCHA/ReliefWeb)
Torrential rains caused floods and landslides across Sri Lanka, which are responsible for seven reported deaths. Several overcrowded boats carrying hundreds of evacuees capsized off the coast of western Myanmar after the lead boat crashed into rocks and more than 50 people are feared dead. Myanmar state television reported Monday that 5,158 people were relocated from low-lying camps in Rakhine state to safer shelters. But far more people are considered vulnerable.
Bathymetry of the Bay of Bengal (Credit: Geomap/MGDS)
Storm surge prediction model (Credit: IMD)
According to latest report by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), TC Mahasen is located approximately 246 nm southward of Calcutta, India. The system is moving north-northeastward at speed of 12 knots. Upper level analysis indicates an anticyclone to the east of the system continues to move into better vertical alignment with the low level circulation center, leading to a decrease in vertical wind shear to low levels (10 knots).
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Rohingya women reinforce their tents at the Ohnedaw Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp on the outskirts of Sittwe on May 15, 2013, as Cyclone Mahasen heads towards landfall. Hundreds of thousands of people in Bangladesh and Myanmar were ordered to evacuate Wednesday as a cyclone bore down on coastal areas home to flood-prone refugee camps for victims of sectarian unrest. Soe Than WIN/AFP/Getty Images
Bangladeshi marine sailors stand on the banks of the Bay of Bengal sea, as they prepare for the coming of tropical cyclone Mahasen, in Chittagong, Bangladesh, Wednesday, May 15, 2013. People living in coastal areas in Bangladesh and Myanmar are being evacuated as cyclone Mahasen appears to make landfall late Thursday or early Friday, according to news reports. (AP Photo/A.M. Ahad)
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| Updated: |
Thursday, 16 May, 2013 at 11:38 UTC |
| Description |
| Cyclone Mahasen has struck the southern coast of Bangladesh, lashing remote fishing villages with heavy rain and fierce winds that flattened mud and straw huts and forced the evacuation of more than 1 million people. The main section of the storm reached land on Thursday and immediately began weakening, according to Mohammad Shah Alam, director of the Bangladesh meteorological department. However, its forward movement was also slowing, meaning that towns in its path would have to weather the storm for longer, he said. Even before the brunt of the storm hit, at least 18 deaths related to Mahasen were reported in Bangladesh, Burma and Sri Lanka. The storm could bring life-threatening conditions to about 8.2 million people in Bangladesh, Burma and north-east India, according to the UN’s Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Danger was particularly high for tens of thousands of displaced Rohingya people living in plastic-roofed tents and huts made of reeds in dozens of refugee camps along Burma’s western coast.
Driven from their homes by violence, members of the Muslim minority group refused to follow evacuation orders. Many distrust officials in the majority-Buddhist country, where Rohingya have faced decades of discrimination. UN officials, hoping they would inspire greater trust, fanned out across the area to encourage people to leave. Early on Thursday, the cyclone battered the southern Bangladesh fishing village of Khepurpara along the Bay of Bengal with 62mph (100km/h) winds and was heading east toward the city of Chittagong and the seafront resort town of Cox’s Bazar. River ferries and boat services were suspended, and scores of factories near the Bay of Bengal were closed. The military said it was keeping 22 navy ships and 19 air force helicopters on alert. Tens of thousands of people fled their shanty homes along the coast and packed into cyclone shelters, schools, government office buildings and some of the 300 hotels in Cox’s Bazar to wait out the storm. Some brought their livestock, which took shelter outside. |
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