A moderate solar flare peaking at M1.7 was observed off the east limb around >Returning Sunspot 1731 located off the east limb produced moderate M1.7 solar flare at 05:25 UTC on May 20, 2013. Sunspot 1731 will begin to rotate back into view within the next 24 hours when it will get new sunspot number.
Space weather forecasters predicted geomagnetic storming conditions up to major G2 level, however, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been mostly pointed north, meaning that geomagnetic activity is being suppressed. Geomagnetic conditions are in normal background for now.
NOAA/SWPC reported passage of an interplanetary shock, recorded by ACE spacecraft. The CME-driven shock was first seen at 22:21 UTC on May 19, 2013, a bit later than forecasters had predicted. A Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse was recorded at 23:11 UTC. This signals the passage of anticipated CME past our planet. High-latitude auroras are possible in the hours ahead. Space weather forecasters expect G2 (Moderate) levels over the next 24 hours.
WARNING: SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2013 May 19 2306 UTC
Deviation: 39 nT
Station: Boulder
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2013 May 19 2320 UTC
Valid To: 2013 May 20 0700 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 – Minor
WSA-ENLIL solar wind prediction map (Credit: NOAA/SWPC) CLICK ON IMAGE TO START AN ANIMATION
Moderate solar flare measuring M3.2 erupted from Region 1748 on May 17, 2013 peaking at 08:57 UTC. A type II and IV radio emissions were associated with the event. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
It seems Earth will feel some of Sun’s material from this flare. Slight CME impact is forecasted late on May 19th.
Additionally, a 10cm radio burst measuring 450 sfu was recorded. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
This is second M-class solar flare from this region in last 12 hours. AR 1748 is classified with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. It is capable of strong eruptions and moving into more geoeffective position. This same region was the source of moderate to very strong activity in last couple of days. Numerous C and M-class flares were recorded. 4 X-class flares erupted from this region on May 13/14 (X1.7 and X2.8 on May 13th, X3.2 and X1.2 on May 14th).
NOAA SWPC forecasters estimated 75% chance for M-class event today, and 50% chance for an X-class.
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 416
Issue Time: 2013 May 17 0927 UTC
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 17 0850 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
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Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 582
Issue Time: 2013 May 17 0926 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 17 0848 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 17 0857 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 17 0912 UTC
Duration: 24 minutes
Peak Flux: 450 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 145 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
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Sunspots
The positions and status of active regions have not changed since our last report. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot groups, active regions, on the solar disk. One to pay most attention to remains Region 1748, still classified with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and capable of strong eruptions. Region 1745 decayed to Beta magnetic field and is now posing little or no threat. It is, however, directly facing Earth today.
A moderate solar flare measuring M1.9 was registered on May 12, 2013. The source of event was a region located on the eastern side and about to rotate into Earth’s view. This event peaked at 20:31 UTC.
In early hours of May 12, 2013 an unstable filament of magnetism on the Earth side of the Sun erupted hurling part of itself into space. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was recorded emerging from the blast and it could deliver a slight, glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on May 15. (Solar prominence vs. Solar filament here.)
Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams
A nice video of today’s filament eruption can be found here…
Sunspots
There are currently 9 numbered regions on the disk. Region 1741, located almost at the center of the disk has Beta magnetic field and there are 5 more, Beta classified regions, that are coming into center of the disk in the coming days.
Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams
Earth is entering a stream of debris from Halley’s Comet, source of the annual eta Aquarid meteor shower. Forecasters expect the shower to peak on May 5th and 6th with as many as 55 meteors per hour in the southern hemisphere and half that number in the north. The best time to look is during the dark hours before local sunrise. [photo gallery]
Two Eta Aquarid Meteors Taken by Mike Lewinski on May 3, 2013 @ Embudo, New Mexico, USA
An active region just over the sun’s eastern limb exploded today, May 3rd @ 1730 UT, producing a strong M5-class solar flare. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory caught a plume of hot plasma flying up from the blast site:
This is the second time in three days that this same farside active region has unleashed a strong flare. The sun’s rotation is carrying the sunspot around the bend, and it should emerge into view from Earth during the weekend. After that, Earth-directed flares are possible. An uptick in geoeffective solar activity appears to be in the offing. Stay tuned for updates.
A spectacular prominence eruption was observed at 02:30 today, officially classified as a far-side eruption from an active region not yet rotated onto the earth facing side of the disk unleashed a powerful blast into space, the resulting coronal mass ejection(CME) was not earth directed, this active region should rotate onto the earth facing side of the disk in 2-3 days.
CHANCE OF FLARES: Will May begin with a solar flare? Two sunspots (AR1730 and AR1731) have ‘delta-class’ magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters put the odds of an M-class solar flare today at 40%. Solar flare alerts:text, voice.
FARSIDE ERUPTION: Actually, May did begin with a solar flare–on the farside of the sun. An active region located behind the sun’s eastern limb erupted during the early hours of May 1st, hurling a plume of red-hot debris into space:
Coronagraph images from NASA’s twin STEREO probes confirm that a CME emerged from the blast site. Earth was not in the line of fire. Next week, however, we might be as the sun’s rotation turns the active region toward our planet.
MINOR RADIATION STORM: Energetic solar protons are flying past Earth today. The particles were accelerated in our direction by the M6-class flare of April 11th (see below). They can be seen hitting and speckling the detector of the SOHO spacecraft in this movie of the explosion (labeled image). NOAA ranks the ongoing radiation storm as S1, which is considered a minor event. Solar flare alerts:text, voice.
STRONG SOLAR FLARE: The magnetic field of sunspot AR1719 erupted on April 11th at 0716 UT, producing an M6-class solar flare. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the explosion’s extreme ultraviolet flash:
Coronagraph images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a CME emerging from the blast site. The expanding cloud should hit Earth’s magnetic field during the early hours of April 13th, possibly sparking geomagnetic storms and auroras.
The speckles near the end of the movie are caused by energetic solar protons hitting the coronagraph‘s CCD detector; the particles were accelerated in the direction of the spacecraft by the flare.
Note that although the CME appears to hit Mars and Venus, there is no actual physical contact. The cloud is merely passing in front of the two planets. Stay tuned for updates about this significant explosion.
The joint ESA/NASA Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) captured this series of images of a coronal mass ejection (CME) on the morning of April 11, 2013 over the course of 11:48 p.m. EDT April 10, to 5:48 EDT April 11. Labeled.
(3/27/2013) – The Mayan’s didn’t use their calendar to predict doom in 2012 but their 394 year Baktun cycle may predict a long period of low solar activity and years of extreme global cooling starting now.
Marking the end of the thirteenth Baktun on Dec 21, 2012 places the onset of solar events that led to the Maunder Minimum – also referred to as the “Little Ice Age”.
Are we ready yet for potentially disastrous impacts of space weather?
“Comparing a future solar event to the 1859 Carrington event: “Directly or indirectly, a comparable geomagnetic storm today (and foreseeable future) would likely include widespread and long-term disruptions on transportation and commerce, agriculture and food stocks, medical facilities, satellite-based communication and navigation systems, national security, etc.” — By Steve Trackton – The Capital Weather Gang – A review of the 2012 Space Weather Enterprise Forum presented by The National Space Weather Program Council.
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Are we ready yet for potentially disastrous impacts of space weather?
“Comparing a future solar event to the 1859 Carrington event: “Directly or indirectly, a comparable geomagnetic storm today (and foreseeable future) would likely include widespread and long-term disruptions on transportation and commerce, agriculture and food stocks, medical facilities, satellite-based communication and navigation systems, national security, etc.” — By Steve Trackton – The Capital Weather Gang – A review of the 2012 Space Weather Enterprise Forum presented by The National Space Weather Program Council.
Our Sun is Losing Energy: The typical peak-to-peak solar cycle have long been established to be about 11 years. The last solar minimum began in 2001 following an unremarkable maximum. But in April 2009 the solar minimum was officially recognized as having lasted far longer than normal. It was not until the middle of 2010 when sunspot numbers began to increase, signalling an overdue, but very weak return to a solar maximum. Relative to Earth, the maximum would be even weaker than forecast due a mysterious absence of earth-directed solar flares – a persistent event that continues to defy the label of “coincidence.”
The health of Earth’s atmosphere - extending out to the magnetosphere – relies on the energy of solar flares to maintain what we have come to expect as a “normal” electrical balance between Earth, Sun and the solar system. For unknown reasons, what little solar flare activity is taking place has been mostly directed away from Earth – causing our atmosphere to experience conditions not much different than an extended “minimum” – as if the solar maximum had not yet returned. If flares continues to miss earth for much longer, the return of the next solar minimum could delay a replenishing solar charge of our magnetosphere for years.
Changes in our Solar System:
Along with a decline in solar energy NASA has detected increased seismic activity on Mars
The rotation of Venus and possibly Saturn has measurably slowed.
Jupiter has exhibited significant weather changes including loss of a characteristic “stripe” as it gained a new red spot.
During 2012 telescopes recorded a giant flash on Jupiter that was larger than Earth. NASA called it a comet or asteroid but didn’t explain the telltale concentric rings and the absence of evidence that anything penetrated Jupiter’s atmosphere.
The 30 year cycle of Saturn Storms has broken stride to appear ten years earlier than predicted.
Hubble has been scanning space for years but only recently has been able to “see” auroras on Uranus.
In 2005 data from NASA’s Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide “ice caps” near Mars’s south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.
Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars melting ice caps data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.
WILL THE SKY TURN GREEN ON ST. PATRICK’S DAY? A magnetic filament snaking around sunspot AR1692 erupted on March 15th at about 0600 UT. The slow explosion, which took hours to unfold, produced an M1-class solar flare and a bright CME. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) photographed the expanding cloud, which is heading directly toward Earth:
The CME left the sun traveling some 900 km/s (2 million mph). Three-dimensional computer models based on observations from SOHO and NASA’s twin STEREO probes predict the CME will cross the void between sun and Earth in two days or less. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on March 17th. This means the sky could turn green on St. Patrick’s Day! High latitude (and possibly even middle latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.
This year was supposed to be the year of ‘solar maximum,’ the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle.
But as this image reveals, solar activity is relatively low.
Sunspot numbers are well below their values from 2011, and strong solar flares have been infrequent, as this image shows – despite Nasa forecasting major solar storms
THE SOLAR CYCLE
Conventional wisdom holds that solar activity swings back and forth like a simple pendulum.
At one end of the cycle, there is a quiet time with few sunspots and flares.
At the other end, solar max brings high sunspot numbers and frequent solar storms.
It’s a regular rhythm that repeats every 11 years.
Reality is more complicated.
Astronomers have been counting sunspots for centuries, and they have seen that the solar cycle is not perfectly regular.
‘Sunspot numbers are well below their values from 2011, and strong solar flares have been infrequent,’ the space agency says.
The image above shows the Earth-facing surface of the Sun on February 28, 2013, as observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory.
It observed just a few small sunspots on an otherwise clean face, which is usually riddled with many spots during peak solar activity.
Experts have been baffled by the apparent lack of activity – with many wondering if NASA simply got it wrong.
However, Solar physicist Dean Pesnell of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center believes he has a different explanation.
‘This is solar maximum,’ he says.
‘But it looks different from what we expected because it is double-peaked.’
‘The last two solar maxima, around 1989 and 2001, had not one but two peaks.’
Solar activity went up, dipped, then rose again, performing a mini-cycle that lasted about two years, he said.
Sunspot numbers are well below their values from 2011, and strong solar flares have been infrequent, as this image shows – despite Nasa forecasting major solar storms
