A moderate solar flare peaking at M1.7 was observed off the east limb around >Returning Sunspot 1731 located off the east limb produced moderate M1.7 solar flare at 05:25 UTC on May 20, 2013. Sunspot 1731 will begin to rotate back into view within the next 24 hours when it will get new sunspot number.
Space weather forecasters predicted geomagnetic storming conditions up to major G2 level, however, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been mostly pointed north, meaning that geomagnetic activity is being suppressed. Geomagnetic conditions are in normal background for now.
NOAA/SWPC reported passage of an interplanetary shock, recorded by ACE spacecraft. The CME-driven shock was first seen at 22:21 UTC on May 19, 2013, a bit later than forecasters had predicted. A Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse was recorded at 23:11 UTC. This signals the passage of anticipated CME past our planet. High-latitude auroras are possible in the hours ahead. Space weather forecasters expect G2 (Moderate) levels over the next 24 hours.
WARNING: SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2013 May 19 2306 UTC
Deviation: 39 nT
Station: Boulder
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2013 May 19 2320 UTC
Valid To: 2013 May 20 0700 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 – Minor
WSA-ENLIL solar wind prediction map (Credit: NOAA/SWPC) CLICK ON IMAGE TO START AN ANIMATION
Moderate solar flare measuring M3.2 erupted from Region 1748 on May 17, 2013 peaking at 08:57 UTC. A type II and IV radio emissions were associated with the event. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
It seems Earth will feel some of Sun’s material from this flare. Slight CME impact is forecasted late on May 19th.
Additionally, a 10cm radio burst measuring 450 sfu was recorded. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
This is second M-class solar flare from this region in last 12 hours. AR 1748 is classified with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. It is capable of strong eruptions and moving into more geoeffective position. This same region was the source of moderate to very strong activity in last couple of days. Numerous C and M-class flares were recorded. 4 X-class flares erupted from this region on May 13/14 (X1.7 and X2.8 on May 13th, X3.2 and X1.2 on May 14th).
NOAA SWPC forecasters estimated 75% chance for M-class event today, and 50% chance for an X-class.
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Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 416
Issue Time: 2013 May 17 0927 UTC
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 17 0850 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
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Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 582
Issue Time: 2013 May 17 0926 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 17 0848 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 17 0857 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 17 0912 UTC
Duration: 24 minutes
Peak Flux: 450 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 145 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
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Sunspots
The positions and status of active regions have not changed since our last report. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot groups, active regions, on the solar disk. One to pay most attention to remains Region 1748, still classified with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and capable of strong eruptions. Region 1745 decayed to Beta magnetic field and is now posing little or no threat. It is, however, directly facing Earth today.
A moderate solar flare measuring M1.9 was registered on May 12, 2013. The source of event was a region located on the eastern side and about to rotate into Earth’s view. This event peaked at 20:31 UTC.
In early hours of May 12, 2013 an unstable filament of magnetism on the Earth side of the Sun erupted hurling part of itself into space. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was recorded emerging from the blast and it could deliver a slight, glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on May 15. (Solar prominence vs. Solar filament here.)
Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams
A nice video of today’s filament eruption can be found here…
Sunspots
There are currently 9 numbered regions on the disk. Region 1741, located almost at the center of the disk has Beta magnetic field and there are 5 more, Beta classified regions, that are coming into center of the disk in the coming days.
Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams
A spectacular prominence eruption was observed at 02:30 today, officially classified as a far-side eruption from an active region not yet rotated onto the earth facing side of the disk unleashed a powerful blast into space, the resulting coronal mass ejection(CME) was not earth directed, this active region should rotate onto the earth facing side of the disk in 2-3 days.
CHANCE OF FLARES: Will May begin with a solar flare? Two sunspots (AR1730 and AR1731) have ‘delta-class’ magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters put the odds of an M-class solar flare today at 40%. Solar flare alerts:text, voice.
FARSIDE ERUPTION: Actually, May did begin with a solar flare–on the farside of the sun. An active region located behind the sun’s eastern limb erupted during the early hours of May 1st, hurling a plume of red-hot debris into space:
Coronagraph images from NASA’s twin STEREO probes confirm that a CME emerged from the blast site. Earth was not in the line of fire. Next week, however, we might be as the sun’s rotation turns the active region toward our planet.
MINOR RADIATION STORM: Energetic solar protons are flying past Earth today. The particles were accelerated in our direction by the M6-class flare of April 11th (see below). They can be seen hitting and speckling the detector of the SOHO spacecraft in this movie of the explosion (labeled image). NOAA ranks the ongoing radiation storm as S1, which is considered a minor event. Solar flare alerts:text, voice.
STRONG SOLAR FLARE: The magnetic field of sunspot AR1719 erupted on April 11th at 0716 UT, producing an M6-class solar flare. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the explosion’s extreme ultraviolet flash:
Coronagraph images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) show a CME emerging from the blast site. The expanding cloud should hit Earth’s magnetic field during the early hours of April 13th, possibly sparking geomagnetic storms and auroras.
The speckles near the end of the movie are caused by energetic solar protons hitting the coronagraph‘s CCD detector; the particles were accelerated in the direction of the spacecraft by the flare.
Note that although the CME appears to hit Mars and Venus, there is no actual physical contact. The cloud is merely passing in front of the two planets. Stay tuned for updates about this significant explosion.
The joint ESA/NASA Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) captured this series of images of a coronal mass ejection (CME) on the morning of April 11, 2013 over the course of 11:48 p.m. EDT April 10, to 5:48 EDT April 11. Labeled.
WILL THE SKY TURN GREEN ON ST. PATRICK’S DAY? A magnetic filament snaking around sunspot AR1692 erupted on March 15th at about 0600 UT. The slow explosion, which took hours to unfold, produced an M1-class solar flare and a bright CME. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) photographed the expanding cloud, which is heading directly toward Earth:
The CME left the sun traveling some 900 km/s (2 million mph). Three-dimensional computer models based on observations from SOHO and NASA’s twin STEREO probes predict the CME will cross the void between sun and Earth in two days or less. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on March 17th. This means the sky could turn green on St. Patrick’s Day! High latitude (and possibly even middle latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.
EARTH-DIRECTED ERUPTION: On Saturday, February 9th, around 0640 UT, a magnetic filament in the sun’s northern hemisphere erupted, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the UV flash from the underlying C2-class solar flare:
The CME, which was captured in flight by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, billowed away from the sun at 800 km/s. The bulk of the cloud looks like it will sail north of Earth. Nevertheless, a glancing blow is possible as shown in this 3D model of the CME prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Flight Center. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Feb. 12th when the CME passes by.
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Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.5 nT
Bz: 1.5 nT south explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 0217 UT
Coronal Holes: 12 Feb 13
Solar wind flowing from this coronal holes could brush against Earth’s magnetic field on Feb. 12. Credit: SDO/AIA.
SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2013 Feb 10 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
10 %
10 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Nov. 23rd when a pair of CMEs is expected to hit Earth’s magnetic field. The incoming clouds were propelled toward Earth by the recent eruptions of sunspot AR1618. Black Friday might be tinged red and green by the glow of high-latitude auroras.
The magnetic canopy of sunspot AR1618 is crackling with M-class solar flares, and NOAA forecasters say an X-flare could be in the offing. AR1618 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for the strongest eruptions. Any flares today would likely be Earth-directed as the sunspot is directly facing our planet.
Sunspot AR1618 is so large (10 times wider than Earth) that Jett Aguilar was able to see it this morning when the sun came up over Marikina City, the Philippines:
Photo details: Canon 100-400 mm EFL lens, Canon 2x Extender and a Canon 7D DSLR (1/8000 sec, f/81, ISO 100).
“There were some clouds on the horizon,” says Aguilar, “but at 06:13 AM the sun came out and I was able to image sunspot AR1618 using an unfiltered Canon 7D digital camera (1/8000 sec, f/81, ISO 100).”
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2MIN News November 21. 2012: Solar Flares
ublished on Nov 21, 2012 by Suspicious0bservers All Images and Information found at the Links Below, with gratitude.
